We model the no before we send the yes.
Before a deal reaches the list it has been through the same model you see on this page — conservative defaults, four stress rows, and a written verdict. Most deals die here. The ones that don't are the ones worth your time.
What we assume until the property proves otherwise.
Every deal starts guilty. These defaults stay in the model until leases, tax cards, quotes, and inspection reports argue them down — and they argue down rarely.
| Line | Default |
|---|---|
| Property management 10% Budgeted even if you plan to self-manage. From three states away, you won't. | 10% |
| Vacancy 8% Base case. Stressed at 15%. | 8% |
| Maintenance 8% Old houses leak money in small ways. We book it before it happens. | 8% |
| Cap-ex reserve 8% Pre-1960 stock is the norm here. Roofs, panels, and supply lines get a line item before they fail. | 8% |
| Lease-up Amortized Tenant turns cost money. We spread the cost across the year instead of pretending it away. | Amortized |
| Insurance ~$1,400/yr A placeholder that holds until a real quote replaces it. | ~$1,400/yr |
| Property taxes County rate, labeled est. Estimated from the county rate until the tax card says otherwise. | County rate, labeled est. |
| Debt Prevailing rates, 30-yr amortization Sized at today's quotes, not last year's. | Prevailing rates, 30-yr amortization |
A deal that only works in the sunshine isn't a deal.
Before a memo ships, the model takes four swings at the deal:
- RENT −10%
- The comps were optimistic, or the market softened.
- VACANCY 15%
- A rough turn, a slow season, an eviction.
- CAP-EX 10%
- The pre-1960 surprise behind the wall.
- RATE +1%
- Your lender's quote moved while you were deciding.
A deal that holds through those rows is a deal. One that doesn't gets a no before it ever reaches the list — and every memo prints its own stress table, including any row that fails. We'd rather show you the breaking point than have you find it.
Run a quick screen.
Price, rent, rate, down payment. The screen runs our published defaults and the stress rows above — the same arithmetic, simplified.
−$42
−$505 PER YEAR
- DSCR
- 0.92
- Cash-on-cash
- −2.1%
- Cap rate
- 6.2%
- Cash required
- $23,800
- Annual debt service
- $6,712
At today's rates, most listings don't pencil. That's the point — the list exists for the ones that do.
Simplified screen with our conservative defaults — not underwriting, not advice. The full model runs deeper. Book a call and we'll run your deal through it.
Four ways a deal dies in the model.
- 01
Fabricated financials. Seller statements with rents nobody pays and expenses nobody books — we rebuild the numbers from leases and tax cards instead.
- 02
Top-of-market rent assumptions. If the deal only pencils at the best comp in the zip code, it doesn't pencil.
- 03
Rehab scoped by hope. An allowance with no GC walk behind it isn't a budget, it's a wish.
- 04
DSCR below lender floors. If the debt won't place, it isn't a deal — it's a story.
See the model work a deal.
The sample memo runs a fictional Charleston address through everything on this page — and prints the rows that break it.